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@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer commented Dec 22, 2025

Description

  1. Addresses Project Cape Construction Timelines & Reservoir Engineering Updates NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#443
  2. Addresses Remove or clarify SAM-EM project payback period NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#413 (8764602)

Web interface links:

  1. Fervo_Project_Cape-5 (Phase II): https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?shared-geophires-result-id=891748dd-932b-4b04-9f70-5a1f0deaea63
  2. Fervo_Project_Cape-6 (Phase I): https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?shared-geophires-result-id=0b78909a-abcb-4187-9318-90cf72d5a6fd

TODO

  1. 🚧 SME review (reservoir engineering)
  2. 🚧 Incorporate ATB updates: https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal
  3. Sensitivity analysis: address why higher flow rates != better economics
  4. Reference https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Singh-2025-Fervo-Project-Cape.pdf: 0b7da6c
  5. Calibrate exploration cost to https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal: b94b01f
    1. Created tracking issue to update GEOPHIRES correlation :Update exploration cost correlation according to 2024b ATB NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#447
  6. 🚧 Documentation and references
    1. 🚧 Clarify calibration of drawdown/redrilling wrt 1-2% expected annual decline
    2. Construction CAPEX schedule
    3. Approach & Methodology update: Clarify SOAK vs. FOAK vs. NOAK: 1e960e4
    4. Describe case study use cases e.g. as a template for custom modeling: 1e960e4
    5. ITC
    6. TOD/ambient temp: 3f96592
    7. OCC vs total capex: a791d54
  7. Sensitivity analysis chart tweaks:
    1. Flow rate text overlap
    2. Link titles (on hover)
  8. Sensitivity analysis: https://github.com/scientific-web-services/geophires-fpc4-sensitivity-analysis
  9. Surface temperature fine-tune based on Project InnerSpace GeoMap: 9af9f1d
  10. Multiple construction years: Update Fervo_Project_Cape-4 based on publicly stated timelines - https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-raises-462-million-series-e-to-accelerate-geothermal-development-and-meet-surging-energy-demand-with-clean-firm-power/
    1. Phase II: 500 MW: Fervo_Project_Cape-4
    2. Phase I: 100 MW: Fervo_Project_Cape-5: 71607b7
  11. Reservoir engineering updates
    1. ~8.5" ID
    2. Flow rate
    3. Fracture surface area
    4. PI/II instead of impedance
    5. Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well
    6. Increased lateral length (adjust fracture separation accordingly)
  12. Higher discount & bond rates

Testing & Verification

  1. Unit tests added: Retains test for previous version: https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/pull/117/changes#diff-77443b51920606ff05244e83370cb4bbd78fb8ee13076d9356d5051c2c9fbef5
  2. Unit tests updated: https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/pull/117/changes#diff-35ea0c0b80463f35958a7d1d7396bad7ad397a7c8e8d96a49da5b90e756c7c7c
  3. Manually tested
fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-lcoe fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-irr fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-project_npv

Change Checklist:

Observe the following checklist items if your change includes a new version (see versioning notes and version management docs).

Before merging:

  1. Add a CHANGELOG entry (example). RST Template:
M.m.P: `TITLE <https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/pull/PR-NUMBER>`__ | `release <https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/releases/tag/vM.m.P>`__

After merging:

  1. Push tag(s) to GitHub: git push origin refs/tags/vM.m.P
  2. Post a change announcement to the GEOPHIRES Change Announcements Discussion (example). Markdown template:
M.m.p: [TITLE](https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/pull/PR-NUMBER) | [release](https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/releases/tag/vM.m.P)

…ulated Well (no effect on economic result metrics)
…ns to validate that build passes with new version pivot (this commit should be reverted soon after merging)
…s-new-version

FPC updates as new `Fervo_Project_Cape-5` version
…ub Actions to validate that build passes with new version pivot (this commit should be reverted soon after merging)"

This reverts commit 923672e.
…ction capex schedule based on SME feedback (WIP: full sensitivity analysis regen, recalibrate Fervo_Project_Cape-6, etc.)
…on, lower fracture height, 1 kg/s higher flow rate, higher PI/II, drawdown tuned for 3 redrillings instead of 2 (WIP to calibrate parasitic load with external source, it might be a little low now). also match docs calibration scenario better with singh et al. scenario (also WIP)
…ominally align with the fact that the fracture is at least slightly wider than spacing
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